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πŸ“Š Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of historical price behavior to anticipate future movements. Its core premise: price reflects everything. All available information β€” fundamentals, expectations, order flow, sentiment β€” is already embedded in the quote. You only need to know how to read it.


Three foundational principles​

  1. History tends to repeat β€” Patterns recur because human behavior in markets is relatively constant across time.
  2. Price moves in trends β€” Prices don't move randomly; they form uptrends, downtrends, or ranges that tend to persist until something breaks them.
  3. Support and resistance β€” Price levels where buying (support) or selling (resistance) has historically concentrated.

Trend structure​

A trend is defined by its sequence of highs and lows:

  • HH (Higher High) + HL (Higher Low) = uptrend
  • LL (Lower Low) + LH (Lower High) = downtrend
  • When the sequence breaks (e.g. a downtrend creates a higher high), a potential reversal is signaled.

Chart patterns​

Continuation patterns (trend continuation expected)​

PatternSignal
Bull/bear flagBrief consolidation before trend continues
PennantConverging lines after sharp move
Ascending/descending triangleBreakout in direction of pressure
Rectangle / channelRange before breakout in trend direction

Reversal patterns (trend change expected)​

PatternSignal
Head and shouldersBearish reversal at top
Inverse head and shouldersBullish reversal at bottom
Double top / double bottomRejection at the same level twice
Rising/falling wedgeWeakening momentum before reversal

Candlestick patterns​

CandleMeaning
DojiIndecision β€” market balance between buyers and sellers
Hammer / Pin barRejection of lower prices; potential bullish reversal
Shooting starRejection of higher prices; potential bearish reversal
Bullish engulfingStrong buying overcomes previous selling
Bearish engulfingStrong selling overcomes previous buying
Morning star3-candle bullish reversal at bottom
Evening star3-candle bearish reversal at top

Technical indicators​

Indicators are mathematical formulas applied to price (and sometimes volume) that help summarize information at a glance.

Trend indicators​

IndicatorWhat it showsCommon use
SMA / EMASmoothed price β€” identifies trend direction20/50/200 EMA as dynamic support/resistance
MACDConvergence/divergence of two MAs β€” momentum shiftsSignal line crossovers, divergence with price
Parabolic SARTrailing stop-level dots β€” trend directionPosition management

Momentum / oscillators​

IndicatorWhat it showsLevels
RSI (14)Overbought/oversold on 0–100 scale>70 = overbought, <30 = oversold
StochasticCompares close to range over N periods>80 = overbought, <20 = oversold
CCIPrice deviation from statistical averageΒ±100 as extreme zones

Volatility indicators​

IndicatorWhat it showsCommon use
Bollinger BandsVolatility envelope around a moving averageSqueeze = low volatility before breakout
ATRAverage True Range β€” average pip move per candleStop loss sizing, position sizing
Keltner ChannelsVolatility-based channel around EMATrend identification + breakout filter

Volume indicators​

IndicatorWhat it shows
OBV (On-Balance Volume)Cumulative buying/selling pressure
Volume ProfileVolume distribution by price level β€” identifies value areas
VWAPVolume-Weighted Average Price β€” institutional benchmark

Advanced concepts​

Smart Money Concepts (SMC)​

A framework for reading how large institutions position themselves before market moves:

ConceptDefinition
Order BlockThe last opposing candle before a strong impulse move β€” often acts as future support/resistance
Fair Value Gap (FVG)Price gap between three candles that tends to be revisited
Liquidity poolObvious accumulation of stop-loss orders above highs or below lows β€” institutions hunt these
Break of Structure (BOS)Confirmation that a new trend direction has begun
Change of Character (ChoCH)First signal of potential reversal β€” a structure break against the prevailing trend

Market Profile​

Statistical distribution of time spent at each price level. Identifies:

  • Point of Control (POC) β€” price level with most time/volume
  • Value Area (VA) β€” range containing 70% of the day's activity
  • Price acceptance vs rejection zones

Order Flow analysis​

Reading the live limit order book and executed trades to understand real-time buying/selling pressure:

  • Footprint charts β€” volume traded at each price within each candle
  • Delta β€” difference between buying volume and selling volume
  • Imbalance β€” extreme one-sided pressure that often precedes continuation

Study resources​

ResourceDescription
Investopedia β€” Technical AnalysisComplete overview of the discipline
TradingViewIndustry-standard charting platform β€” free to use
Babypips β€” Technical AnalysisBeginner-friendly walkthrough of indicators and patterns
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets β€” John MurphyThe canonical reference book in the field
Trading in the Zone β€” Mark DouglasBridges technical analysis with trading psychology

Rayner Teo β€” 'Technical Analysis Masterclass' (41 min) β€” a comprehensive walkthrough of price action, trend trading, support/resistance, and chart patterns by one of the most-watched Forex educators.


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